The French cut-off gained 53 points in two months. It is not a target.
On October 16, 2026, IRCC invited 5,000 French-speaking candidates with a cut-off of 435 points. Two months earlier, the same category closed at 382. Most candidates note the latest published number and turn it into their goal. That is precisely what a cut-off cannot be used for.
The trap
A cut-off is not set before the draw. It is observed afterwards, by going down the list of candidates in the pool until the planned invitations run out. It describes who happened to be there that day, not what IRCC requires.
Between August 19 and October 16, roughly eight weeks without a French draw let the pool fill up. The cut-off climbed 53 points without a single rule changing.
Key points
- October 16, 2026: 5,000 invitations in the French-language category, CRS cut-off 435.
- August 19, 2026: same French-language category, CRS cut-off 382.
- Between the two, no French draw for roughly eight weeks.
Why aiming at the last published cut-off does not work
You take the number from the latest draw, work out what you are missing, and build your timeline around it. The trouble is that this number depends on how many candidates are sitting opposite you, not on your own file. The longer the wait between draws, the bigger the pool grows, and the higher the cut-off climbs. You are chasing a value that is recalculated at every draw, and always after the fact.
What does not get recalculated
One thing does not move from one draw to the next: the French-language category requires NCLC 7, and no amount of CRS points replaces that floor. It is also the part of your file you can still raise before you submit. Aiming well clear of the line, rather than just over it, is the only protection against a cut-off that moves. Over the last 30 days, 367 listening tests were started on the platform and 149 were carried through to the end.
Ready to reach CLB 7?
The next cut-off has not been written yet: it will depend on who is in the pool that day. Your margin, on the other hand, is built now.
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